Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Bold Prediction Wednesday

There are two things that I need major improvement on (actually there are 222 things, but the other 220 we'll save for another entry:)

1) Staying on schedule
2) Taking risks

In order to cut this list down, I plan to have one column per week fixated to a theme.

For we sports fans, it's very easy to criticize our sports authorities or pipelines on predictions that each make.  Most of them I find to be dull and pedestrian - like "I think the Patriots will take the AFC East" or "I like the Lakers to win a lot of games."  In lieu of such boring prognostication, I've come up with Bold Prediction Wednesdays. The goal is to be correct, but to attempt to be accurate with a some statistics, trending and even a little bias.  And since none of the days of the week begin with 'B' or 'P,' we'll go with Bold Prediction Wednesday - or BPW.  And, please, if anyone has a better title for this segment, all suggestions are welcomed.

Our first installment looks at baseball.  It's clear there is greater parity in baseball in the last five years than in the five preceding 2006 and the five preceding 2001.  Going into play today, there are 17 TEAMS within 5 games of the division lead and two others - Colorado and Minnesota - who are probably going to make a serious run at their respective divisions.  There is not as much fear in facing bigger, badder teams (unless you playing in Philadelphia against Halladay or Lee at night - that's fear.)  The better teams are still good, but they dont' have the dominance they once possessed earlier in the century.

One team that has looked consistent, if not semi-dominant are the Yankees, who have somehow managed to piecemeal together a formidable batting order for the first time since 2010.  They lead the Majors in runs, home runs, walks and slugging percentage and are second in a handful of other offensive categories.  The leader of this offensive juggernaut this summer has not been Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texiera or Robinson Cano - although each are have terrific first halves to 2011.  Curtis Granderson has been the surprise and sensational combination of speed and power the Yankees could not have expected when they got him in Pinstripes last season.  Granderson leads the Bombers in runs, total bases, on-base percentage and stolen bases and is tied for the team lead with 25 home runs - an incredible boost for an already explosive lineup.

The pitching has not been too bad, either.  CC Sabathia has led the team with an non-All-Star, All-Star like season: 12 wins, 2.90 ERA, 117 Ks, and a 1.20 WHIP.  His surprise supporting cast of Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon and Ivan Nova (as well as AJ Burnett) have combined with Sabathia for a team ERA of 3.63 and 41 of the team's 51 victories.

The Yankees have so many offensive weapons that it's hard to even acquire a new piece at the trading deadline because there's really no room.  They'll find a bench player or a complementary fourth starter, but the team is largely in place for the duration of the season.  This is not to say there is a major problem, only a possible gumption to suffocate trade deadline talks like in previous Julys.

There are four things that I contend will factor into the Yankees success:

1) Sabathia can't do this by himself.  His innings per start are slightly over seven, which is almost 1/2 an inning more than his career average while his pitch count is up by over 14 pitches.  Many of his averages: ERA, WHIP, Ks have been maintained, but teams with good offensive threats are putting the ball in play and crossing the plate (Red Sox, Rangers, Blue Jays.)  Garcia and Colon haven't sustained success in a long time and the team already has low number of quality starts (46) compared the rest of the league.  Burnett is an absolute spazz and can throw a no-hitter or have trouble getting out of the first inning.  The bullpen has been decent, but Sabathia's work load will have to be maintained, or it's trouble for the middle relief.

2) Granderson can't keep this pace.  He's a traditional leadoff hitter who has altered many games in the Yankees favor this season with his home runs.  He'll continue to get on base and Texiera, Rodriguez and Cano will still threaten opponents, but can the Yanks continue to score five runs per game regularly?

3) Jeter, Posada and Rivera.  There's no reason to think Jeter will continue to professionally handle the critics while reaching base and being solid in the field.  Rivera is still a stud and Posada...well, Jeter and Rivera have been great.  These three know how to get the job done in the postseason, but how much of their efforts, if floundering, will hurt New York when they are entitled to their spot in the lineup?  They are up there in years, needing more medical attention and reliance on hard-nosed approaches rather than pure skill.  This leads us to...

4) 42 road games.  The Yanks will leave the All-Star break with a tough eight-game road trip against the Jays and Rays.  Practically their entire team will be in Arizona for the All-Star game and then will travel back across the country and then down to St. Petersburg.  They are the oldest team in the majors and the season will, inevitably, take its toll.

It's crazy to think the Yankees won't continue their brilliance, but I truly believe their recent successful June is a product of a favorable schedule, staying healthy, and avoiding their hated rivals.  They were 27-23 after dropping two games in Seattle and searching for answers.  They've turned the ship around, but how long will they keep this train rolling?  Therefore, my inaugural bold prediction will be the following:

The New York Yankees will fail to make the playoffs for the 2011 season.


Will the Bombers run out of gas?
Yes, it's crazy, highly unlikely and foolish on a number of levels.  Only time will tell, but I'll stick to my guns and see how the dog days affect the Empire. 

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