Tuesday, February 17, 2015

The ACC Perch

Last night I watched intently as the Pitt Panthers charged into Charlottesville to battle the #2 Cavaliers in a key ACC game.  Virginia had just squeaked by a paltry Wake Forest squad by one point on Saturday, and most likely would have lost the contest if their stingy defense didn't hold the fort at the final possession.  The Panthers, meanwhile, had saved all of their lights-out shooting for the visiting UNC Tar Heels some 55 hours earlier, thumping then #12 UNC for their strongest victory of the season.

The game last night unfolded as maddeningly as any Pitt fan would have expected.  The Panthers "show-up" for the opening tip (lead 4-0), go through long droughts on offense (two times failing to score in a 5-minute span) and finish the first half down 25-15.  Pitt closed the deficit to three points with under eight minutes in the game, but it never felt like the team would be able to withstand Virginia's pressure or continuously force misses on the defensive end.  The Cavaliers prevailed by 12 and Pitt now has until Saturday to find answers before heading to Syracuse to face the Orange.

Virginia has a tremendous basketball team.  They move in unison on offense and defense.  They understand the importance of spacing and timing.  They've bought stock in the philosophy that holding opponents to 50 points per game will lead to a lot of victories.  It's easy to understand why they will contend for a Final Four and a National Championship.

Fans and pundits alike agree that Pitt is currently outside of the NCAA Tournament bracket.  Wins over UNC, Notre Dame and Syracuse are nice, but there isn't enough consistency in their play against the middle and bottom of the conference to reward the Panthers with a tournament berth.  I, for one, don't think Pitt needs any more glamour victories to make the tournament.  Pitt needs to take care of business with the games in front of them.  It's cliché to say "take it one game at a time," but Pitt's next big opponent is whoever is next on the schedule.  They've proven they can beat very good teams (UNC,) lose to terrible teams (Virginia Tech) and try to lose against less-than-mediocre teams (the list is long.)

Pitt Basketball is not too far from Pirates Baseball for me.  Part of the love for both squads is the never-ending spin cycle of hope, expectations and bitter disappointment that comes with falling short to bigger, better teams.  The Steelers and Penguins both provide and provided underdog stories that ultimately led to championships.

Now that Pitt is in its second rodeo in the ACC, what should my expectations be?

For starters, let's take a look at the last four seasons' best and worst teams in the ACC, as found in the standings heading into the conference tournament:
The Best
2012: #1 UNC, #2 Duke, #3 Florida St., #4 Virginia
2013: #1 Miami, #2 Duke, #3 UNC, #4 Virginia
2014: #1 Virginia, #2 Syracuse, #3 Duke, #4 UNC
2015: #1 Virginia, #2 Notre Dame, #3 Duke, #4 UNC and Louisville

While this isn't earth-shattering news, it should be noted the stranglehold UVA, Duke and UNC have on the ACC.  Like it was noted in the broadcast last night, Coach Tony Bennett now has the players to fit his system.  Keep in mind their best defender, Justin Anderson, missed his third game and will be out until March and they still only have one loss on the season.  The system isn't going anywhere which means Virginia isn't going anywhere.  North Carolina and Duke have pedigree that speak volumes and will be at the top of the conference mountain as long as they aren't on probation.  Louisville won a national title in 2013 and reached the Final Four the year earlier.

You might wonder how this might be any different from Kentucky in the SEC or Arizona in the Pac-12 or Wisconsin in the Big 10 or Kansas in the Big 12.  These programs are consistent winners.  The difference in these conferences is the parity surrounding the top.  Kansas, for example, has won or tied for the regular season Big 12 title every year since 2005.  They have been in the discussion for the Final Four for just as long, boast a storied tradition, and marvelous records.  However, the teams in the top four of the Big 12 are consistently rotating:
2011: #1 KU, #2 Texas, #3 Texas A&M, #4 Kansas St.
2012: #1 KU, #2 Missouri, #3 Iowa St., #4 Baylor
2013: #1 KU, #2 Kansas St., #3 Oklahoma St., #4 Iowa St.
2014: #1 KU, #2 Oklahoma, #3 Texas, #4 Iowa St.

If you review the Big 10, Pac-12 and SEC, you'll find the same outcomes, as well.

Now let's quickly glance at the teams in the caboose of the ACC:
The Bottom
2012: #9 Wake Forest, #10 Virginia Tech, #11 Georgia Tech, #12 Boston Coll.
2013: # 9 Georgia Tech, #10 Wake Forest, #11 Clemson, #12 Virginia Tech
2014: #11 Georgia Tech & Wake Forest, #13 Notre Dame, #14 Boston Coll., #15 Virginia Tech
2015: #12 Wake Forest, #13 Georgia Tech, #14 Virginia Tech, #15 Boston Coll.

I am never writing-off these programs to ascend towards the middle of the conference for a couple of reasons.  First, all of them have very good coaches that have been hired within the last two seasons.  Second, they've had players and successful seasons that each can reference to promote promise and stability.  Third, their styles of play are different (up-tempo vs. half court vs. front court heavy) making each difficult to prepare for in their own way.

Where does this leave Pitt?  If recent history is any indication, there's one chair at the table remaining for any other program that might want to claim it (FSU, Miami, Syracuse, Notre Dame.)  Is the expectation for Pitt to be satisfied hibernating year after year somewhere between a #7 seed in the NCAA Tournament and a #5 seed in the NIT?  Should we expect a victory or two against some of the conference's top teams before falling to the like of the Demon Deacons in Winston Salem?

As pessimistic as I might be about this season's ultimate fate, I'm looking forward to the benchmark the Panthers create for themselves.  It's because of victories against North Carolina that make you feel like you belong in the best basketball conference in the land.  Currently sitting at 17 victories, it would be a nice feather-in-the-cap to reach 21-22 wins, considering this young squad only has two games remaining at home.  And while I hope these Panthers make the Big Dance, it would be an even better feeling for this season if they beat the teams they should.  They're not yet at the top of the perch, but here's hoping one day, the big boys will save them a seat.

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